GMT FX Live – Daily News – 28th February 2019

Overnight Interbank Range AUDUSD 0.7126 – 0.7188 AUDEUR 0.6263 – 0.6312 AUDGBP 0.5347 – 0.5431 AUDNZD 1.0412 – 1.0439 Commentary • Yesterday’s Construction Work Done for Q4 2018 fell by 3.1% q/q, following a downwardly-revised decline of 3.6% in Q3 (previously -2.8%). The result reflected broad-based weakness, with declines in private residential building work (-3.7 % q/q), private non-residential construction (-0.9% q/q) and public investment. The data poses a downside risk to our Q4 GDP estimates. • The market is currently pricing an 88% chance of a rate cut by the RBA by the end of the year. • Risk assets remain in a cautious mood not helped by an escalation in tension between India and Pakistan, while overnight US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, tempered expectations of an imminent US-China trade deal following earlier suggestion by President Trump that a deal with his friend Xi was in the making. • Today we have key data with local capex data and China PMI data which the AUD will be sensitive to. Data today / tonight • AU Private Capital Expenditure 4Q, Private Sector Credit o Capex is expected to confirm that mining investment is close to bottoming and non-mining investment is continuing to slowly trend up. NAB forecasts the net impact of these two forces to be a small tick up in total capex of 0.5% q/q (vs. 1% consensus). We’ll also be closely watching the machinery and equipment component of capex, which feeds into GDP. • CH Manufacturing PMI ( 49.5 exp. vs 49.5 prev.) Non-manufacturing PMI (54.5 exp. vs 54.7 prev.) • GE CPI • US Initial Jobless Claims, GDP Annualized and Fed speakers (Bostic, Harker, Kaplan)