Forex News News 29 June 2019

Overnight Interbank Range AUDUSD 0.6985 – 0.7005 AUDEUR 0.6139 – 0.6164 AUDGBP 0.5494 – 0.5532 AUDNZD 1.0442 – 1.0472 Commentary · Mixed markets overnight with conflicting stories about what will be the outcome of tomorrow’s crucial Trump / Xi meeting at the G20 summit. · Currency moves have again been relative subdued with the USD little changed in index terms, while commodity linked currencies are a tad stronger. AUD continues to grind towards 0.7000. · European equities ended the day in negative territory with the Eurostoxx 50 index recording its fifth negative day in a row. EU data releases didn’t help sentiment with euro-area economic confidence – a composite of business and consumer confidence – falling by slightly more than expected to its lowest level in three years. · Ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting we wouldn’t expect the market to do much, but on the economic calendar US personal income, spending and PCE deflators will be of some interest. Event risk is likely to be binary on trade news. A weekly close above 0.7000 would signal a pause in the medium term AUD downtrend. · Yesterday NAB published a note outlining what a new US Fed easing cycle might mean for the USD and the AUD. The starting point is to assume the US and China agree an uncomfortable truce with no removal of tariffs, meaning the Fed is likely to embark on a new easing cycle at the end of July. (NAB’s call is two cuts this year, one at each of the next two meetings, July and September.) I have attached the report. Data/Events today · NZ Consumer Confidence · JPN Industrial Production · EUR CPI · US Personal Income & Spending · US PCE deflator